Groundwork

What's actually happening with Bay Area housing

How much housing is getting built, and what it costs to rent or buy, across San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, and Marin counties.

Counties
Cities none selected

Building pipeline

Housing units permitted and completed each year, by county and city.

Measure

The RHNA income categories. Re-scales the pipeline chart, its table, and the RHNA pace.

Outlined bars aren't whole-county totals. Contra Costa County 2022 and Contra Costa County 2025 are missing a jurisdiction with no figure in Table A2 for that year. Faded bars without an outline are complete but provisional. Details in the table below.

View as table
Building permits issued by year and jurisdiction
Year Alameda County Contra Costa County Marin County San Francisco
2021 6,275 3,622 487 2,221
2022 6,839 3,089 (partial) 471 2,852
2023 5,335 3,358 520 3,055
2024 4,370 2,311 442 1,073
2025 5,011 2,669 (partial) 486 1,959

Partial totals. A county figure adds up only the jurisdictions with data for that year, so these are not whole-county totals: Contra Costa County 2022 is missing Brentwood and Contra Costa County 2025 is missing Clayton. Every figure here is the sum of what was actually reported, so a partial year is at least the figure shown. We can't tell a jurisdiction with nothing to report from one that skipped its report, so we don't fill the gap in.

Are they on RHNA pace?

On pace = 100%. Where a jurisdiction should be this far into its 2023–2031 RHNA cycle if it were building steadily.

  • San Francisco 16% of pace

    5,828 permitted of a 36,400 prorated target · 82,069-unit 6th-cycle target by 2031

  • Marin County 16% of pace

    1,040 permitted of a 6,389 prorated target · 14,405-unit 6th-cycle target by 2031

  • Contra Costa County 27% of pace

    5,901 permitted of a 21,752 prorated target · 49,043-unit 6th-cycle target by 2031

  • Alameda County 27% of pace

    10,827 permitted of a 39,473 prorated target · 88,997-unit 6th-cycle target by 2031

RHNA data: California Department of Housing and Community Development, as of August 2026

California Department of Housing and Community Development · Data as of August 2026 · About this data

Self-reported by jurisdictions; not independently verified by HCD. The most recent year is provisional: reports were due in April and late filers keep arriving, so the latest year's counts typically rise for months.

47 of 48 jurisdictions have reported 2025 data so far. Not yet reported: Clayton. Their 2025 figures are left blank, and a county total missing one of them is marked "(partial)".

Home values

Typical home value, by county and city.

View as table
Typical home value by month and jurisdiction
Month Alameda County Contra Costa County Marin County San Francisco
Jul 2021 $1,055,874 $804,728 $1,406,623 $1,405,448
Aug 2021 $1,064,944 $811,992 $1,413,490 $1,416,829
Sep 2021 $1,068,386 $814,354 $1,411,638 $1,423,639
Oct 2021 $1,070,730 $815,484 $1,405,933 $1,427,868
Nov 2021 $1,076,978 $818,744 $1,405,739 $1,436,105
Dec 2021 $1,086,709 $824,280 $1,410,562 $1,444,428
Jan 2022 $1,105,499 $834,937 $1,434,482 $1,453,600
Feb 2022 $1,134,066 $850,359 $1,471,312 $1,467,971
Mar 2022 $1,169,737 $869,941 $1,520,403 $1,488,050
Apr 2022 $1,198,905 $886,665 $1,559,079 $1,505,401
May 2022 $1,215,031 $897,033 $1,587,867 $1,511,714
Jun 2022 $1,215,670 $899,010 $1,601,505 $1,504,113
Jul 2022 $1,201,192 $891,960 $1,596,979 $1,484,223
Aug 2022 $1,175,709 $877,790 $1,574,969 $1,453,365
Sep 2022 $1,145,812 $861,074 $1,544,984 $1,418,223
Oct 2022 $1,121,961 $847,521 $1,521,281 $1,387,899
Nov 2022 $1,105,140 $837,294 $1,501,779 $1,363,337
Dec 2022 $1,094,157 $828,787 $1,481,750 $1,343,138
Jan 2023 $1,082,358 $819,166 $1,454,102 $1,320,081
Feb 2023 $1,072,442 $811,120 $1,430,787 $1,300,615
Mar 2023 $1,065,757 $805,186 $1,414,226 $1,285,783
Apr 2023 $1,064,822 $803,728 $1,411,829 $1,280,874
May 2023 $1,068,316 $805,628 $1,417,023 $1,277,571
Jun 2023 $1,073,964 $810,008 $1,428,836 $1,276,424
Jul 2023 $1,081,991 $815,499 $1,446,377 $1,276,012
Aug 2023 $1,090,996 $820,172 $1,465,240 $1,278,764
Sep 2023 $1,100,289 $823,642 $1,482,753 $1,281,752
Oct 2023 $1,108,084 $826,124 $1,493,562 $1,281,463
Nov 2023 $1,112,714 $826,965 $1,495,117 $1,276,627
Dec 2023 $1,113,856 $826,947 $1,486,653 $1,268,309
Jan 2024 $1,112,301 $825,485 $1,471,610 $1,258,226
Feb 2024 $1,112,718 $825,496 $1,460,286 $1,250,070
Mar 2024 $1,120,377 $828,792 $1,464,408 $1,251,245
Apr 2024 $1,134,447 $834,754 $1,480,201 $1,260,828
May 2024 $1,148,865 $839,952 $1,496,967 $1,274,021
Jun 2024 $1,156,210 $841,402 $1,503,884 $1,280,632
Jul 2024 $1,158,462 $840,534 $1,504,736 $1,284,238
Aug 2024 $1,155,974 $838,044 $1,502,748 $1,284,168
Sep 2024 $1,152,853 $835,615 $1,501,347 $1,284,164
Oct 2024 $1,148,704 $833,206 $1,497,503 $1,282,206
Nov 2024 $1,147,337 $832,437 $1,493,942 $1,282,998
Dec 2024 $1,147,245 $832,229 $1,490,115 $1,285,810
Jan 2025 $1,146,258 $831,221 $1,486,530 $1,288,246
Feb 2025 $1,144,668 $828,715 $1,482,798 $1,288,830
Mar 2025 $1,141,320 $824,486 $1,477,561 $1,287,288
Apr 2025 $1,136,548 $819,564 $1,471,485 $1,285,685
May 2025 $1,127,361 $813,479 $1,464,785 $1,281,262
Jun 2025 $1,114,659 $806,952 $1,457,996 $1,274,992
Jul 2025 $1,101,988 $801,185 $1,454,208 $1,270,299
Aug 2025 $1,090,470 $796,626 $1,452,961 $1,268,758
Sep 2025 $1,084,409 $793,839 $1,456,008 $1,272,661
Oct 2025 $1,082,589 $792,714 $1,460,605 $1,281,759
Nov 2025 $1,084,566 $792,702 $1,465,966 $1,294,906
Dec 2025 $1,087,144 $793,776 $1,471,526 $1,312,886
Jan 2026 $1,087,266 $793,594 $1,476,981 $1,327,856
Feb 2026 $1,086,178 $792,832 $1,483,507 $1,340,887
Mar 2026 $1,084,339 $791,424 $1,490,046 $1,351,458
Apr 2026 $1,081,783 $789,687 $1,495,784 $1,362,811
May 2026 $1,079,131 $788,201 $1,500,807 $1,378,775
Jun 2026 $1,076,798 $786,730 $1,504,466 $1,395,852

Data provided by Zillow · Data as of June 2026 · About this data

Rents, homes, and jobs

Alameda County

Typical asking rent, as published

$2,895 Jun 2026

up 4.8% over the year

Typical asking rent, as published

Homes completed per 1,000 existing homes, by year

Change in employed residents per 1,000 residents, by year

Contra Costa County

Typical asking rent, as published

$2,901 Jun 2026

up 3.2% over the year

Typical asking rent, as published

Homes completed per 1,000 existing homes, by year

Change in employed residents per 1,000 residents, by year

Marin County

Typical asking rent, as published

$3,750 Jun 2026

up 4.3% over the year

Typical asking rent, as published

Homes completed per 1,000 existing homes, by year

Change in employed residents per 1,000 residents, by year

San Francisco

Typical asking rent, as published

$4,401 Jun 2026

up 20.4% over the year

Typical asking rent, as published

Homes completed per 1,000 existing homes, by year

Change in employed residents per 1,000 residents, by year

Three series on one timeline is not a cause. Building can affect rents, and building and rents both respond to the same local demand, but nothing here tells you how much of any of this movement was which.

Show permits beside completions to see what was approved alongside what was built. Off by default because a permit is not a home and the two are different project cohorts.

What was going on

The chart cannot tell you why any of these lines moved. These notes give the context that is actually established, and say where it stops.

2020 to 2022

Housing demand moved, and the count of who moved was itself revised

Bay Area rents fell sharply in 2020 and took years to recover. Two things about the period are documented, and neither is a measurement of this chart. Migration changed, by less than first reported. The California Policy Lab estimated in December 2021 that moves into California had fallen 38% since the start of the pandemic, then corrected that to 8% in April 2022 after finding a methodological error that had undercounted arrivals. Its estimates of departures were not affected by the error and did rise, and by the last quarter of 2021 it found Bay Area entrances rising again while still differing from before the pandemic. Separately, remote work changed what housing people wanted: San Francisco Fed researchers estimated the shift accounted for about 60% of national house price growth between November 2019 and November 2021, by moving demand toward space and away from proximity to a workplace. That study measured national house prices, not Bay Area rents. It is a reason to expect demand to move. It is not a measurement of where it moved to, and we have not measured that here. None of it explains the building line either: a home completed in these years was permitted before it was completed, so those bars record decisions taken earlier.

Sources: California Policy Lab: New and Corrected Estimates of California Migration Patterns (April 2022, correcting the December 2021 release); Kmetz, Mondragon and Wieland, Remote Work and Housing Demand, FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-26

since 2023

Building money got expensive and has not fully come back

The cost of borrowing rose steeply and remains well above where it was. The federal funds rate went from effectively zero through 2021 to above 5% by mid-2023, and was still above 3.5% in late 2026. Through 2023 and 2024, the Federal Reserve's quarterly survey of senior bank loan officers recorded banks tightening their standards on commercial real estate construction and land development lending; that is a statement about those years, not about today. What this means for the bars on this chart is an inference and not something this site has measured. The reasoning is that a home is permitted and financed before it is completed, so the recent completion figures reflect conditions from earlier, and a project that never started leaves no mark here at all. We cannot follow a specific project from permit to completion in this data: the source aggregates away project identity, which is also why this panel never shows a conversion rate.

Sources: Federal Reserve: Federal Funds Effective Rate (FRED series DFF); Federal Reserve: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

Inflation adjustment

The rent chart is drawn in constant dollars so a rise in the line means rent rose faster than other prices, not that prices rose. The figure above each chart is always as published, because that is the one on a lease. Pick the yardstick:

  • Nominal dollars No adjustment. The rent as published, in the dollars of its own year, which is the figure on a lease.
  • San Francisco CPI, all items less shelter Rent measured against other Bay Area consumer prices, with shelter left out of the yardstick. Covers the metro area, which includes our four counties plus San Mateo. Local indexes carry more sampling noise than the national one.
  • San Francisco CPI, all items The headline local inflation number, the one in news coverage. Its basket includes shelter, so rent is measured partly against itself.
  • US city average CPI, all items less shelter The national yardstick, monthly and less noisy than the local series. Not Bay Area specific, so it misses local cost-of-living divergence.
View annual figures as a table
Alameda County
Year Homes completed Per 1,000 homes Jobs change per 1,000 Rent
2021 7,257 11.59 7.0 $2,529
2022 7,492 11.83 19.7 $2,676
2023 5,709 8.9 2.8 $2,689
2024 5,210 8.04 -2.3 $2,679
2025 4,862 7.45 0.3 $2,750
Contra Costa County
Year Homes completed Per 1,000 homes Jobs change per 1,000 Rent
2021 2,870 6.75 15.6 $2,477
2022 1,982 (partial) 4.63 19.3 $2,629
2023 2,591 6.02 2.8 $2,658
2024 2,019 4.66 -1.1 $2,733
2025 2,518 (partial) 5.78 0.1 $2,791

Partial years are a floor rather than a total: 2022 is missing Brentwood and 2025 is missing Clayton.

Marin County
Year Homes completed Per 1,000 homes Jobs change per 1,000 Rent
2021 260 2.33 6.9 $3,062
2022 276 2.47 15.9 $3,271
2023 364 3.24 2.4 $3,317
2024 391 3.48 -2.4 $3,429
2025 534 4.73 -2.3 $3,536
San Francisco
Year Homes completed Per 1,000 homes Jobs change per 1,000 Rent
2021 5,600 13.63 -4.1 $3,113
2022 2,910 7.01 38.9 $3,344
2023 2,618 6.26 -5.4 $3,348
2024 1,850 4.4 -14.5 $3,386
2025 2,844 6.74 -3.6 $3,670
View monthly rent readings as a table

The monthly readings the rent chart draws. The annual table above cannot express them: it cannot show a gap, and it cannot show when a move began.

Alameda County
Month Rent (as published)
Jan 2021 $2,450
Feb 2021 $2,459
Mar 2021 $2,467
Apr 2021 $2,480
May 2021 $2,498
Jun 2021 $2,526
Jul 2021 $2,560
Aug 2021 $2,579
Sep 2021 $2,583
Oct 2021 $2,581
Nov 2021 $2,579
Dec 2021 $2,586
Jan 2022 $2,596
Feb 2022 $2,617
Mar 2022 $2,640
Apr 2022 $2,665
May 2022 $2,688
Jun 2022 $2,708
Jul 2022 $2,726
Aug 2022 $2,731
Sep 2022 $2,719
Oct 2022 $2,693
Nov 2022 $2,673
Dec 2022 $2,658
Jan 2023 $2,651
Feb 2023 $2,660
Mar 2023 $2,693
Apr 2023 $2,716
May 2023 $2,727
Jun 2023 $2,714
Jul 2023 $2,714
Aug 2023 $2,710
Sep 2023 $2,697
Oct 2023 $2,677
Nov 2023 $2,659
Dec 2023 $2,649
Jan 2024 $2,647
Feb 2024 $2,651
Mar 2024 $2,667
Apr 2024 $2,675
May 2024 $2,686
Jun 2024 $2,692
Jul 2024 $2,700
Aug 2024 $2,701
Sep 2024 $2,692
Oct 2024 $2,684
Nov 2024 $2,677
Dec 2024 $2,678
Jan 2025 $2,685
Feb 2025 $2,705
Mar 2025 $2,724
Apr 2025 $2,745
May 2025 $2,751
Jun 2025 $2,761
Jul 2025 $2,767
Aug 2025 $2,779
Sep 2025 $2,780
Oct 2025 $2,779
Nov 2025 $2,765
Dec 2025 $2,763
Jan 2026 $2,773
Feb 2026 $2,796
Mar 2026 $2,815
Apr 2026 $2,835
May 2026 $2,859
Jun 2026 $2,895
Contra Costa County
Month Rent (as published)
Jan 2021 $2,393
Feb 2021 $2,399
Mar 2021 $2,415
Apr 2021 $2,431
May 2021 $2,455
Jun 2021 $2,472
Jul 2021 $2,491
Aug 2021 $2,514
Sep 2021 $2,526
Oct 2021 $2,536
Nov 2021 $2,540
Dec 2021 $2,549
Jan 2022 $2,561
Feb 2022 $2,572
Mar 2022 $2,591
Apr 2022 $2,614
May 2022 $2,629
Jun 2022 $2,653
Jul 2022 $2,666
Aug 2022 $2,676
Sep 2022 $2,666
Oct 2022 $2,651
Nov 2022 $2,643
Dec 2022 $2,630
Jan 2023 $2,630
Feb 2023 $2,632
Mar 2023 $2,649
Apr 2023 $2,656
May 2023 $2,660
Jun 2023 $2,655
Jul 2023 $2,665
Aug 2023 $2,672
Sep 2023 $2,680
Oct 2023 $2,672
Nov 2023 $2,667
Dec 2023 $2,664
Jan 2024 $2,678
Feb 2024 $2,690
Mar 2024 $2,710
Apr 2024 $2,728
May 2024 $2,745
Jun 2024 $2,754
Jul 2024 $2,757
Aug 2024 $2,756
Sep 2024 $2,752
Oct 2024 $2,745
Nov 2024 $2,747
Dec 2024 $2,738
Jan 2025 $2,742
Feb 2025 $2,746
Mar 2025 $2,769
Apr 2025 $2,788
May 2025 $2,803
Jun 2025 $2,811
Jul 2025 $2,817
Aug 2025 $2,817
Sep 2025 $2,815
Oct 2025 $2,806
Nov 2025 $2,792
Dec 2025 $2,784
Jan 2026 $2,796
Feb 2026 $2,821
Mar 2026 $2,841
Apr 2026 $2,859
May 2026 $2,879
Jun 2026 $2,901
Marin County
Month Rent (as published)
Jan 2021 $2,940
Feb 2021 $2,966
Mar 2021 $2,959
Apr 2021 $2,989
May 2021 $3,016
Jun 2021 $3,049
Jul 2021 $3,089
Aug 2021 $3,119
Sep 2021 $3,146
Oct 2021 $3,147
Nov 2021 $3,160
Dec 2021 $3,167
Jan 2022 $3,202
Feb 2022 $3,199
Mar 2022 $3,229
Apr 2022 $3,251
May 2022 $3,293
Jun 2022 $3,309
Jul 2022 $3,319
Aug 2022 $3,324
Sep 2022 $3,315
Oct 2022 $3,288
Nov 2022 $3,267
Dec 2022 $3,258
Jan 2023 $3,248
Feb 2023 $3,262
Mar 2023 $3,285
Apr 2023 $3,309
May 2023 $3,311
Jun 2023 $3,317
Jul 2023 $3,328
Aug 2023 $3,351
Sep 2023 $3,344
Oct 2023 $3,374
Nov 2023 $3,339
Dec 2023 $3,340
Jan 2024 $3,327
Feb 2024 $3,361
Mar 2024 $3,393
Apr 2024 $3,423
May 2024 $3,451
Jun 2024 $3,459
Jul 2024 $3,472
Aug 2024 $3,477
Sep 2024 $3,471
Oct 2024 $3,450
Nov 2024 $3,438
Dec 2024 $3,429
Jan 2025 $3,452
Feb 2025 $3,467
Mar 2025 $3,521
Apr 2025 $3,549
May 2025 $3,593
Jun 2025 $3,595
Jul 2025 $3,589
Aug 2025 $3,549
Sep 2025 $3,531
Oct 2025 $3,518
Nov 2025 $3,529
Dec 2025 $3,542
Jan 2026 $3,576
Feb 2026 $3,604
Mar 2026 $3,640
Apr 2026 $3,650
May 2026 $3,696
Jun 2026 $3,750
San Francisco
Month Rent (as published)
Jan 2021 $2,912
Feb 2021 $2,924
Mar 2021 $2,951
Apr 2021 $2,993
May 2021 $3,043
Jun 2021 $3,118
Jul 2021 $3,191
Aug 2021 $3,249
Sep 2021 $3,266
Oct 2021 $3,255
Nov 2021 $3,236
Dec 2021 $3,223
Jan 2022 $3,236
Feb 2022 $3,265
Mar 2022 $3,292
Apr 2022 $3,312
May 2022 $3,332
Jun 2022 $3,356
Jul 2022 $3,380
Aug 2022 $3,400
Sep 2022 $3,407
Oct 2022 $3,405
Nov 2022 $3,382
Dec 2022 $3,355
Jan 2023 $3,337
Feb 2023 $3,339
Mar 2023 $3,358
Apr 2023 $3,352
May 2023 $3,358
Jun 2023 $3,359
Jul 2023 $3,375
Aug 2023 $3,378
Sep 2023 $3,371
Oct 2023 $3,348
Nov 2023 $3,315
Dec 2023 $3,284
Jan 2024 $3,288
Feb 2024 $3,306
Mar 2024 $3,340
Apr 2024 $3,360
May 2024 $3,378
Jun 2024 $3,391
Jul 2024 $3,411
Aug 2024 $3,423
Sep 2024 $3,434
Oct 2024 $3,430
Nov 2024 $3,434
Dec 2024 $3,434
Jan 2025 $3,449
Feb 2025 $3,477
Mar 2025 $3,518
Apr 2025 $3,562
May 2025 $3,602
Jun 2025 $3,655
Jul 2025 $3,702
Aug 2025 $3,760
Sep 2025 $3,803
Oct 2025 $3,832
Nov 2025 $3,832
Dec 2025 $3,843
Jan 2026 $3,887
Feb 2026 $3,963
Mar 2026 $4,048
Apr 2026 $4,148
May 2026 $4,257
Jun 2026 $4,401

An annual rent figure is the mean of that year's published monthly readings, deflated once as an annual figure, so it will not exactly match the mean of the monthly points on the chart. A year with fewer than twelve readings is marked with its month count, and a year with fewer than 9 gets no annual rent at all, though its monthly readings still draw. A bar is a whole calendar year, not a rate: the latest year with no bar has no Annual Progress Report filed yet.

Homes completed: California Department of Housing and Community Development, as of August 2026. Housing stock: California Department of Finance, as of September 2026. Employment: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of September 2026. Rents: Data provided by Zillow, as of June 2026.

Legal developments

The laws changing what can get built: what each one says on paper, and what's actually happening on the ground.

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